THE CRISIS WITHIN: IS THE UK HEADING FOR AN AUTUMN OF DISCONTENT?

This article was first published on ciprcrisiscommsnetwork.wordpress.com/blog/ on 7 June 2022

Friends of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson cheered out loud this week as he won his vote of confidence by a margin of 64 votes. Conservative MPs voted by 211 to 148 to keep him in his post. In theory, by winning the vote, the Prime Minister has become immune from both another vote of confidence and a leadership challenge for a year. Yet, paradoxically, because 41% of his MPs refused to back him, the Prime Minister’s position today is potentially more vulnerable now than it has been in recent weeks. There are various examples of previous Prime Ministers who won confidence votes with better margins than this, yet nonetheless all of them resigned within a few months of the vote.

Conservative MPs who voted against the Prime Minister – now known as ‘rebels’ – are strikingly disparate in their nature. According to former Conservative leader Lord (William) Hague, they comprise MPs from the “right, left, centre, keen Brexiteers, moderate One Nation types, hardened old-timers and even some ambitious young thrusters.”  There is no single policy or reason that has caused this lack of confidence, no desire to depose one particular leader in favour of another: instead this crisis has been caused by a wider loss of faith and an understanding of the dangers a political party (and every individual within it) faces if laws and standards are disregarded, ethics advisers pushed aside. The Prime Minister has repeatedly stated that he wants to “draw a line” and “move on” yet in doing so he ignores the reasons that so many of his own MPs rebelled. This crisis is, we hear,  about integrity, a sense of shame in the attitudes and behaviours exhibited by leadership, disappointment in a perceived lack of delivery of manifesto commitments and policy, widespread concerns over the government’s direction of travel and an understanding that it is not possible to move on from ‘Partygate’ and the lawbreaking and potential breaches of the ministerial code associated with that. In this, the rebels reflect the views of many of their constituents and the wail of anguish that has been repeatedly reported by both the press and assorted polls.

Boris Johnson’s purported plan to deliver “the people’s priorities” only 24 hours after the vote could be viewed as tone deaf, especially since there has been no clarification as to what these priorities are or how they will be delivered. On the other hand, if over coming months he is able to connect to voters and to conceive and deliver policy objectives that resolve some of these issues, he will be able to regain some sense of competent government. However we live in a time of unprecedented challenges and there are no easy solutions.

There can be no doubt that the Conservative party has become riven with disagreement, disaffection and unhappiness. As the UK’s governing party this can only result in political instability. We are in a period of crisis. For the public affairs professional this matters very much, not least because of the difficulties involved in engaging government and regulatory stakeholders meaningfully and the ability to discuss, inform and influence policy. Businesses may also be concerned that the government is too distracted with party matters to be able to focus on resolving issues and delivering tangible results.

This turbulence is unlikely to abate any time soon. There are opportunities for parliamentarians to rebel throughout the rest of this parliamentary session and the next. The upcoming by-elections in Wakefield and Tiverton will provide voters with an opportunity to have their say and are not predicted to be good news for Conservatives.  The House of Commons Privileges Committee is expected to report in the autumn, having collected and considered the evidence about Partygate left aside by the Metropolitan Police and Sue Gray, among other things. It is anticipated that the Committee will specifically consider whether the Prime Minister has misled the House of Commons which, if so, should be a resignation matter according to the Ministerial Code. And although it remains to be seen whether this will in fact be the case, the entire process will be grist to the mill of rebels and opposition parties alike.

According to Camilla Cavendish, Baroness Cavendish of Little Venice, former Director of Policy to former Prime Minister David Cameron, the only reason Boris Johnson won the vote of confidence is that he has no clearly agreed successor. Every member of the current cabinet is “tainted” because they have “defended the indefensible” and consequently any prospective candidate for leader must be an “outsider who can unite the party”, and as no candidate has been immediately identified, this process will take some time. As a result, the confidence vote in no way resolves Boris Johnson’s future or restores his critics’ trust in him or their belief in his ability to govern.

Mega-crisis

A so-called “mega-crisis” is defined as a "unique crisis that permeates throughout society, affects multiple publics, and requires societal intervention in order to contain or resolve the crisis." It is caused by a complex interplay of physical, economic, political, social and cultural factors. The issues tend to be multi-faceted and inter-related. Compared to a crisis, a mega-crisis is higher in severity and deeper in complexity. It creates deep uncertainty, has global impacts and there is no seeming end in sight.

The current political situation in the UK has created a bedrock of instability which has spilt over, driving and/or exacerbating myriad other factors which affect many people and which, coming together, is creating a mega-crisis. For example, we are probably closer now to a break-up of the United Kingdom than at any other time.  The purpose of the ruling party in Scotland, the SNP, is to achieve independence. This might have edged a little closer this week as currently only 2 of Scotland’s 6 Conservative MPs will support the Prime Minister into another General Election. The recent election of republican party Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland will only add to pressures for independence there too. 

Meanwhile, Brexit remains far from done, with the government planning to rip up its own treaty over the Northern Ireland protocol.  Whilst this move is calculated to please Unionists, it will certainly have far reaching ramifications, infuriate the EU, create great uncertainty for business and could also be very damaging economically. It could also be illegal.  

The war in Ukraine has massively disrupted supplies of both fuel and food, two of the most basic essentials to human existence. As yet there is no end in sight to the war, and there will be no end to disrupted supply chains without peace. Ukraine is often referred to as the “breadbasket of the world” yet millions of tons of grain stored in Ukraine silos are unable to leave the country, and millions more tons cannot be harvested from fields and stored. Russia has been accused of using food as a “stealth missile” against developing countries around the world as millions of people there are faced with food shortages. Lack of food so often leads to hunger and disease.

In the UK, the fuel crisis continues to affect the price consumers pay for fuel at the pump, thus squeezing their disposable income. It also directly affects food prices since food producers require fuel to heat glasshouses and move/export their products, which causes minimized production, reduced exports and increased prices for consumers. Inflation has caused the price of fertilizer to rise exponentially; even chicken feed is up by 30%. There is a view that food prices in the UK have been historically low, especially as compared to those in Europe, and that it is time that the consumer market began to achieve better parity with the costs of production in any case. Taken together with the war, the fuel crisis, plunging stock markets and rising inflation and interest rates, this represents a toxic brew for consumers. Adam Leyland, the editor of ‘The Grocer’ magazine predicts that food prices are likely to increase well into 2023. With many consumers still struggling to recover from the consequences of the Covid pandemic the impact this will have on underlying levels of poverty, and consumers’ health and wellbeing more generally, could be severe.

So what’s the good news? It’s hard to say!There is no doubt that the months ahead will be bumpy indeed. Whether any of these crises, individually or collectively, will translate into social, and even civil, unrest remains to be seen.For now, PR professionals and crisis communicators would be well advised to build resilience and to watch, wait and prepare.Mega-crises thrive in an environment of constant flux where long term solutions lie within a complex web of social, political and economic imperatives.It is difficult to address them because of the multiplicity of factors involved: and owing to their complexity, they cannot be resolved unilaterally. Consequently, individual businesses and other organisations should aim to respond to mega-crises in smaller parts, as and how and when they can, together with their stakeholders. Good stakeholder relationships are key to any crisis, so keep communicating with your stakeholders, treat them with respect, involve them where you can, maintain the connection, make sure you don’t disregard their points of view. Tell the truth, be transparent, build trust. If you need to say sorry, do so sincerely. The ability to view yourselves and the actions you take through the eyes of your stakeholders is more important than you might imagin